The Dollar Remains Steady, the Franc Stalls – What Does the Technical Analysis of USD/CHF Tell Us?

The dollar rose sharply against all major currencies yesterday, following an aggressive selloff in GBP/USD triggered by a surge in 30-year UK bond yields to a new cyclical high. Some of those gains were later erased, but the greenback remained steady as price action continues to be volatile ahead of key U.S. economic data.

Traders will focus on the employment reports – ADP and the official NFP data. These will have a significant impact on expectations for future monetary policy. Currently, the market is pricing in a 91% probability of a rate cut in September and a total of 55 basis points of easing by year-end.

A strong report could reduce the probability of a September rate cut to around 50/50, but would certainly lead to a more hawkish reassessment of policy over the longer term and support the dollar. Conversely, weak data would likely increase expectations for even more aggressive easing – including a potential third rate cut before the end of the year, which would weigh on the dollar.

As for the Swiss franc (CHF), there are no new signals of a shift in monetary policy – the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains on an extended pause. The latest inflation data from the country showed slight improvement, but even with further similar readings, the SNB is unlikely to change its stance as inflation remains well below its 2% target.

Technical outlook USD/CHF: Daily

On the daily chart, USD/CHF is moving within a range defined by two trendlines, showing signs of consolidation. Sellers became active around the upper trendline and pushed the price lower toward the bottom one. If the price reaches that level, we can expect buyers to step in, using the line as a support for low-risk long entries below it. In such a scenario, the target would be an upward move back toward the upper trendline, with a potential breakout above it if buying pressure increases.

Technical outlook USD/CHF: 4h

On the 4-hour chart, the price action between the two trendlines is even more clearly visible. In a broader context, the structure can be viewed as a potential bullish flag — provided the price breaks to the upside. Such a breakout would signal a continuation of the upward trend. The opposite scenario — a downside breakout — would invalidate the pattern from a technical perspective and would likely strengthen the bearish momentum.

Technical outlook USD/CHF: 1h

On the 1-hour chart, a shorter-term ascending trendline is visible, currently supporting the bullish momentum within this timeframe. The price recently bounced off this line, suggesting that buyers are likely to continue relying on it to push toward new highs. Meanwhile, sellers will be watching for a break below the trendline, which could increase bearish bets toward the main lower trendline. The red lines indicate today’s average daily price range.