A bearish outlook for the dollar could drive gold, copper, and platinum prices higher.

Expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar could provide strong upward momentum for gold, copper, and platinum prices, which, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysis, exhibit an inverse correlation with the dollar. Prices of gold, CMX copper, and platinum—historically showing a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar—may be on the verge of a new upswing, given the bearish outlook for the currency. Among the companies whose share prices have shown the strongest correlation with these metals over the past six months are Agnico Eagle Mines, Zijin Mining, and Northam Platinum.

1. Gold, Copper, and Platinum Show the Strongest Inverse Correlation with the Dollar

Our one-year analysis indicates that gold, CMX copper, and platinum exhibit the strongest negative correlation with the U.S. dollar. This relationship is primarily driven by interest rates and inflation expectations, which directly impact the dollar and, in turn, the value of commodities. According to BI strategists, the recent strengthening of the dollar—triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict—is likely to be short-lived. The broader outlook remains structurally bearish for the dollar, and the ongoing trend toward de-dollarization could further support higher prices for both precious and industrial metals.

2. Production Has Limited Impact on Share and Commodity Prices

Our research reveals that metal production volumes have limited influence on the correlation between mining companies’ share prices and the underlying commodity prices. Among the leading producers of gold, copper, and platinum, only Newmont demonstrates a strong correlation with the spot price of gold. In contrast, Freeport-McMoRan, a major copper producer, saw its correlation with copper prices fall to just 0.147 over the past six months. Similarly, BHP and Anglo American show minimal correlation with copper, with R-squared values of only 0.02–0.03, though they exhibit stronger links to iron ore prices.

3. Gold Miners’ Shares Rise in Tandem With Gold

The share prices of leading gold mining companies have demonstrated a strong correlation with gold over the past six months. Agnico Eagle Mines reached an impressive R-squared value of 0.96, underscoring its tight link to the metal’s price. The company plans to expand production at Detour Lake to 1 million ounces annually by 2030 and grow its presence in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Colombia. Newmont and Barrick Gold have also benefited from the gold rally, reporting Q1 2025 net income increases of 1012% and 61%, respectively. Although correlation has slightly declined compared to historical averages, companies such as Zijin Mining, Harmony Gold, and Gold Fields continue to show high correlation levels between 0.8 and 0.9.

4. Zijin Mining Leads in Copper Price Correlation

Over the past six months, correlations between copper miners’ share prices and the price of copper have weakened significantly. For Freeport-McMoRan, the correlation dropped to 0.147, while BHP saw a decline from 0.7 (based on 10-year data) to just 0.016. Despite a reduction in strength, Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper continue to hold the strongest correlation to copper prices among their peers.

5. Platinum Producers Reflect the Metal’s Rally

Platinum mining stocks have begun to exhibit a stronger correlation with platinum prices, particularly in the short term. Valterra Platinum (formerly Anglo American Platinum) maintains a modest correlation of 0.48, while other leading producers have now reached correlation levels between 0.7 and 0.8, up from just 0.3 over the past decade. Forecasts suggest platinum prices are likely to continue rising due to a market deficit, which could reach 750,000 ounces in 2025.

6. The Geopolitical Dollar Rally Is Nearing Its End

Although geopolitical risks typically lead to a stronger dollar, this time the effect appears to be short-lived. A social media post by Donald Trump about a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has reignited bearish sentiment toward the dollar.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has already erased nearly its entire 2% gain since June 12, when Israel struck Iran.

7. The Dollar’s Bearish Move Is Structural, Not Temporary

Analysts describe the dollar’s decline as structurally driven. Uncertain trade policies, doubts about U.S. economic exceptionalism, and accelerated de-dollarization are undermining confidence in the dollar.

While temporary rebounds are possible, they are not seen as signals of a sustained recovery. Since April 2, the Bloomberg BBDXY Index has fallen nearly 4.5%, confirming the ongoing downward trend.