Потенциална Волативност: Как докладът за работните места утре може да “разклати” S&P 500

Friday’s jobs report will almost certainly be a market-moving event, with investors trading on different outcomes for what might happen, according to Goldman Sachs.

The November jobs report will be the last major economic indicator of the year and could determine whether investors will get another rate cut this month when the Federal Reserve meets on Dec. 17-18.

Investors are confident that a quarter-point cut is on the cards, despite some hesitation last month. Markets are pricing in about a 75% chance of a cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool, and Fed officials have issued some dovish comments in recent days.

But a surprisingly strong reading in Friday’s report could throw those expectations of easing into question and cause volatility in the stock market. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 214,000 jobs last month.

“I think the best bet for stocks is somewhere between 150k and 200k, as the market is poised for a significant rebound from the poor October report, when hurricanes and strikes were headwinds that are now behind us,” said John Flood, head of Americas equities trading at Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, in a note on Tuesday.

“The stock market doesn’t want to see a number above 275k, as a surprisingly hot data would give Jay Powell and his team the opportunity to sit out the December 18 meeting (and adopt a wait-and-see strategy for 2025),” he added. “Yes, we have temporarily reverted to the mindset that bad (but not too bad) data is good for stocks.”

Goldman Sachs looked at six scenarios for how stocks could react after Friday’s jobs report. Here’s what could happen.

• A number above 275,000 could mean the S&P 500 would fall by at least 1%
• A number between 235,000 and 275,000 could cause the S&P 500 to fall by 0.5% to 1%
• A number between 200,000 and 235,000 could cause the S&P 500 to move up or down by 0.5%
• A number between 150,000 and 200,000 could cause the S&P 500 to rise by 0.5% to 1%
• A number between 100,000 and 150,000 could cause the S&P 500 up 0% to 1%
• A number below 100,000 could cause the S&P 500 to fluctuate between 0% and a 0.5% decline

In Flood’s “best-case” scenario, 150,000 to 200,000, the S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5% to 1% after the report, according to this analysis.

However, his official position assumes a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, suggesting stocks are likely to fall on Friday.