$10.31 Billion in Expiring BTC & ETH Options: What to Expect from the Crypto Market Today

Today, BTC and ETH options worth $10.31 billion are set to expire, potentially triggering short-term price fluctuations. The “max pain” level for BTC is $98,000, while for ETH, it stands at $3,300, with bullish put-call ratios of 0.68 and 0.43, respectively.

Traders anticipate sharp price movements as option contracts settle, leading to possible liquidations and trend shifts over the weekend.

🔸 BTC Options: $8.36 billion (80,179 contracts)
🔸 ETH Options: $1.94 billion (603,426 contracts)

This expiration marks a significant increase compared to last week, aligning with month-end positioning. With heightened volatility expected, traders should closely monitor potential market reactions.

Today’s Bitcoin options expiration shows a max pain level at $98,000 with a put-call ratio of 0.68, indicating a bullish sentiment despite the asset’s recent pullback. Similarly, Ethereum options are set to expire with a max pain level at $3,300 and a put-call ratio of 0.43, reflecting a comparable market outlook.

Put-call ratios below 1 for both BTC and ETH suggest that more traders are positioned for price increases. However, analysts caution that the expiration event could intensify volatility, as traders adjust positions. “This could lead to significant price swings as traders reposition ahead of expiration. Expect sharp movements and potential liquidations,” warned Crypto Dad, a well-known market observer on X.

Historical Expiration Patterns and Current Price Action

Historically, large-scale options expirations have triggered short-term price fluctuations. Currently:

• BTC is trading at $104,299 (-0.64%)
• ETH is trading at $3,226 (+1.04%)

At these levels, Bitcoin remains well above its max pain price of $98,000, while Ethereum is trading below its $3,300 threshold. The max pain concept suggests that prices tend to gravitate toward levels where the most options expire worthless, causing minimal payouts for option holders.

Market Dynamics Around Max Pain

As options near expiration, the majority of contracts (both calls and puts) lose value. This benefits option sellers (market makers and institutional players), as contracts expire out-of-the-money, allowing them to retain the premium collected from selling the options.

The max pain theory suggests that institutional traders (“smart money”) often influence price action to align with these key levels. As expiration nears, market makers hedge positions to maintain a delta-neutral portfolio, adjusting exposure by buying or selling the underlying asset, which in turn drives prices toward max pain levels.

Post-Expiration Market Outlook

• Short-term volatility is expected as large positions unwind.
• Market stabilization typically follows expiration as traders reposition.
• Weekend price action will be influenced by post-expiry liquidity shifts and liquidation effects.

Given today’s highly volatile expiration event, traders and investors should anticipate potential price swings that could define market direction heading into the weekend.