A crunch Brexit vote is coming that could trigger even more political chaos




British lawmakers are set to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-maligned Brexit deal on Tuesday, with less than three months to go before the U.K. is set to leave the European Union.

Remarkably, May’s template to exit the bloc faces virtually certain defeat.

That leaves the prospect of a complete collapse of government, a disorderly exit from the bloc or even the entire Brexit process being scrapped altogether over the coming weeks.

CNBC takes a look at what to expect ahead of the all-important vote.

What is the vote?
May’s proposal is split into a “Withdrawal Agreement,” setting out the terms of the divorce and a “Future Relationship” document, which drafts how the U.K. will interact with the EU in the future.

The U.K. government and EU heads of state have signed off on the preliminary deal and now U.K. lawmakers have a “meaningful vote” to decide whether it can proceed.

Following five full days of parliamentary debate, the vote is due to take place on the evening of Tuesday January 15.

Westminster must now either accept the government’s plans for a structured exit and relatively close economic ties with the EU or reject it and spawn massive uncertainty over the country’s next steps.

What are the chances of its success?
Parliamentary opposition to May’s deal looks daunting, but the prime minister remains hopeful of getting more assurances from the EU on her Brexit deal.

So far, there has been little sign of any willingness from Brussels to offer May the legal cover she has been seeking — most notably on the so-called “backstop ” arrangement for the Irish border.

If the deal comes to pass, Britain and the EU would be on track to enter into a transition period from March 29. However, negotiations between the U.K. and the bloc would still continue as they attempt to resolve a future relationship.

Her proposal needs the backing of 320 lawmakers, more than half of the 639 MPs (Members of Parliament) that vote in Westminster.

But, the numbers do not appear to be in May’s favor.

After stacking up opposing votes from the main opposition Labour party along with those from the Scottish National Party and Northern Ireland’s DUP (Democratic Unionist Party), May is already under pressure.

Add to that the opposition from both the pro and anti-EU wings of her own Conservative Party and her Brexit deal looks in real trouble.

What happens immediately after the vote?
If the prime minister’s deal is voted down on Tuesday evening, the government would only have three parliamentary working days to come up with revised plans.

Downing Street was expecting to have a 21-day period to file a parliamentary motion, but U.K. lawmakers backed calls to bring the deadline forward on Wednesday.

The margin of a possible defeat could also be important.

A minor defeat of around 30 or 40 votes could tempt May to return to Brussels in a last-ditch attempt to tweak the draft withdrawal agreement. But, a substantial loss would probably result in chaos descending upon British politics once again.

For now at least, the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union at 11:00 p.m. London time on March 29, 2019.

How will markets react?
Presently, the range of potential outcomes include: a May resignation, a vote of no confidence in the government, a general election, a second referendum on EU membership, a temporary stop on Britain’s withdrawal, or possibly even some sort of combination of all the above.

“If anything, the events of the past two weeks suggest the distribution looks much more uniform,” strategists at Nomura said in a research report published this week.

“In other words, high levels of uncertainty make all potential outcomes equally likely, including the tail risks of ‘no deal’ on the one hand, but remaining in the EU as the other.”

Source: CNBC

 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

Read more:

If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
WARNING: Any news, opinions, research, data or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Varchev Finance Ltd. expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Varchev Finance Ltd. may provide information, quotes, references and links to or from other sites and blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the sites, blogs or other sources of information.
Varchev Finance


25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256

Universal numbers

World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600    Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44

Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.

Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006

The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.


CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

chat with dealer
chat with dealer
Cookies policy