Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 5% versus 6.8% on January 10

Big drop in the GBP estimate for fourth quarter from the Atlanta Fed.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth drops to 5%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q GDP growth tumbled to 5% from 6.8% after the disappointing retail sales report this morning. In their own words:

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.0 percent on January 14, down from 6.8 percent on January 10. After the January 10 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.5 percent to 2.0 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 17.8 percent to 18.1 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.21 percentage points to 0.19 percentage points.”