AUD/USD – D1
Our expectations – After the Fed last week’s decision, the positive moods around the US grew drastically. On the other hand, relations between the US and China are worsening. This leads to uncertainty in emerging markets and hence weakness for AUD and NZD. Given the bottom line, I expect the downward movement to remain as a breakthrough on the current support level will lead to additional sales and a 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the already “fallen” upward trend. The price is testing the bottom for 2018, with no real breakthrough at the moment. Given the strong impulse as well as the foundation, the probability of a breakthrough remains high. Current levels are risky for both Sell and Long. There are several scenarios worth considering. Given the bottom of the year I expect to have a rebound in the upward direction before the actual breakthrough. If there is an upward correction, there are two possible levels that are good to observe to take up a downward position. The first one is about 0.7500, where, with available Price Action, aggressive traders would be active, and the second is at the 0.75550 levels where conservative traders would make their decision. In both cases, SL must be above the main diagonal to avoid excessive market noise. The third option is to break the support to wait for a test and position with a small volume and a short stop in order to extract a gain from the initial impulse down.
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes above the baseline and stays there in several successive bars, the negative scenario will break and we are more likely to see a rise in the AUD price versus the USD.
Trader Petar Milanov