BAML: '2 factors that can make the 'greatest bull market of all time'

NYSE Traders


icon mailicon facebookTwitter iconGoogle iconicon hyperlink

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has identified what it views as the two catalysts that can keep the almost nine-year bull market going strong.
The current run is already the second-longest ever, and it needs to go roughly 1,200 more days without a 20% drop to become the king of all bull markets.
Michael Hartnett has made it no secret: He thinks the almost nine-year stock bull market is on its last legs.

For the past several months, the chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned against the so-called Icarus trade, which he defines as a reversal of the "melt up" seen in stocks since early 2016. Right before the stock market's recent 10% correction caught many traders off-guard, he issued a strong sell signal. He's even gone as far as to outline a four-part formula for a market meltdown.

Yet while Hartnett's bearish side has driven much of his recent commentary, he still sees a way for the stock market's ongoing rally to become the "greatest bull market of all time." At more than 3,250 trading days, it's already the second-longest on record. All it needs is roughly 1,200 more days without a 20% drop to become the king of all bull markets.

Hartnett pinpoints two specific drivers that could take the benchmark S&P 500 to the promised land:

"An unanticipated surge in productivity growth"— Weak productivity growth has confounded economists over the past few years, yet a recent study from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests it could see a turnaround. This is crucial to the longevity of the bull market because it helps neutralize rising inflation, which is frequently cited as a major concern for investors.

"A speculative bubble from a Great Rotation out of negatively yielding debt into stock markets"— BAML has frequently referred to the "Great Rotation" since coining the term in 2011, and it refers to investors pulling money out of bonds and reallocating them to stocks.

But don't think Hartnett is going soft on his bearish market outlook. Even if a perfect combination of factors pushes stocks higher, he argues the "last great entry point" into stocks came more than two years ago, on February 11, 2016.

Overall, Hartnett's core stance is to stay cautiously optimistic when it comes to stocks — a view matching what BAML's global team has been saying. In late January, James Barty, the firm's head of global cross-asset and European equity strategy, warned that markets were "starting to get a little stretched," while urging caution.

With all of that in mind, investors would be advised to proceed warily. After all, the 10% correction that rocked US equities in early February was jarring for many traders who probably wish they'd been better hedged.

Source: Bloomberg Pro Terminal

Jr Trader Alexander Kumanov

 Varchev Traders

Subscribe to Varchev Finance's newsletter and get the most important to your email

Read more:

If you think, we can improve that section,
please comment. Your oppinion is imortant for us.
WARNING: Any news, opinions, research, data or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Varchev Finance Ltd. expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Varchev Finance Ltd. may provide information, quotes, references and links to or from other sites and blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the sites, blogs or other sources of information.
Varchev Finance


25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256

Universal numbers

World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600    Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44

Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.

Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.


Derivatives and margin trading involve a high degree risk level. You should not trade Forex and CFD unless you fully understand how it functions, what your benefits can be, what your risk is, and what you may lose. Please, note that the losses can be practically unlimited and that the initial deposit will not permanently limit the risk. You have to fully realize your financial status and make sure that trading in derivatives hides the risk of losing the entire amount invested. Invest only the amounts that you are able to lose.

chat with dealer
chat with dealer
Cookies policy