The prospect of a new rally is ahead of the Pound if the Prime Minister, May, avoids defeat by the current no-confidence vote, but even this victory will not hinder the chaotic state of the currency.
And while Cable continues to climb after it was announced that May would seek Conservative support to quell the rebellion, traders believe that even a thin win would be enough to give the currency a rest. However, investors have to take into account the still pressing risks to the forthcoming Brexit vote by Parliament, the prerequisites for new parliamentary elections or a referendum. Chances for my to survive are 78% according to bookmakers.
The vote of no-confidence vote is expected to take place this evening around 23:00 GMT, but it may be delayed and displaced until the end of the American session or the start of trading in Tokyo, where thin liquidity will not be so dramatic movements at the pound.
Banks came out with different forecasts in the two scenarios in which Mae survived the vote and suffered a loss.
If Teresa May survives the no-confidence vote
- Jordan Rochester of Nomura International Plc: The pound may rise by 1 to 2% on May’s success.
- Jane Foley: If Mee wins today’s vote, and I think she has high chances of success, we expect an upward momentum in the pound, but limited given the current uncertainty. Even if the Minister wins with little difference, she is less likely to resign. However, if it can win by a larger majority, the Pound may make a stronger move upwards, because the markets will probably assume that if she wins a big margin, she will have a higher chance of winning and at Parliament.
- Ned Rumpeltin of Toronto – Dominion Bank: Margin, with whom May won the vote today, will not matter much. Victory is a victory. The more they vote, the better.
If Teresa May suffered a loss of no confidence
- From Nomura Rochester: The pound could fall by 3% within days if Mae lost in distrust water. The next 12 hours will be critical and the price will be driven mainly by the news.
- John Normand of JP Morgan Chase & Co: The pound may fall between 5 and 10% on May’s loss.
- Morten Helt from Danske Bank A / S: We have a GBP 1,2310 technical support for the GBP, which would have to be met if May lost the vote today. The likelihood of a new referendum will also increase in the scenario that May is losing its position as a leader, which should also support the currency.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Trader Martin Nikolov