Bitcoin Accumulation Spike: Big Holders Bet on New Highs. Why

itcoin Holders Increase Reserves Amid Trump-Led Market Surge

Bitcoin Drops 10% After Record High

Bitcoin (BTC $98,394) has declined by over 10% after reaching a record high of $109,355 on January 20. This peak coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration, marking a 60% increase since his election victory in November.

On-Chain Data Suggests an Imminent Bullish Move

Despite BTC remaining below $100,000, on-chain data indicates that the next upward impulse may be inevitable.

Rising Demand from Long-Term Holders

According to CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, the “Permanent Holder Demand” indicator, which tracks BTC accumulation by long-term investors, has sharply increased in recent months.

This trend aligns with Bitcoin’s price surge from $67,500 in November 2024 to record levels in early 2025. CryptoQuant data shows that accumulating addresses—mainly belonging to investors who rarely sell—have significantly increased their BTC holdings.

Confidence Among Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

Historically, spikes in long-term holder demand have been followed by a sharp sell-off, suggesting that many so-called “strong hands” eventually become sellers within a month after accumulating BTC.

This pattern has been particularly evident during previous bull markets, where aggressive buying eventually transitions into profit-taking and distribution.

What Makes This Rally Different?

Unlike previous cycles, the current accumulation demand—both on a daily basis and in its 30-day moving average—has not returned to pre-Trump levels, even after Bitcoin’s recent correction.

Instead, demand rebounded even during the early February pullback, indicating that long-term holders remain confident and are selling less aggressively compared to past cycles.

Factors Supporting Bitcoin’s Uptrend

• Potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserves in the U.S. if the Trump administration continues supporting the crypto sector.
• Increasing institutional demand from ETFs, governments, public companies, and investment funds.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Heading to $116,000?

Bitcoin is currently forming a symmetrical triangle, a technical pattern that often precedes a strong breakout in either direction.

According to market analyst Titan of Crypto, BTC may break above the upper trendline, potentially rallying toward $116,000.

In technical analysis, the price target is calculated by adding the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines of the symmetrical triangle to the breakout point.

Unusual Doji Formation Signals Impending Volatility

Analyst DOM has identified an unprecedented Doji formation on Bitcoin’s daily chart, signaling market uncertainty similar to that seen after the FTX collapse in November 2022.

“For the first time in Bitcoin’s 15-year history, we have seen three consecutive daily candlesticks where the body is less than 0.05% of the total price range (Extreme Doji). This indicates maximum indecision and an impending major move.”

During the last occurrence of two consecutive Extreme Doji candles in November 2022, Bitcoin surged +620%. If history repeats itself, BTC could be on the verge of an explosive rally.

Long-Term Outlook: New Highs in Q1 2025?

According to Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in Q1 2025, driven by Trump’s policies and strong equity markets.

However, many analysts see $80,000 as a realistic short-term target. Bravo Research suggests that if BTC drops to these levels, it may present a “buy-the-dip” opportunity for traders.