Data from UTXO shows that Bitcoin traders are not yet exhibiting the typical behavior associated with BTC market peaks.
Bullish Bitcoin markets are typically characterized by high activity from new market participants, while more experienced traders begin preparing for a decline, according to analysts from CryptoQuant. By analyzing the peaks of previous bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, IT Tech expert highlights that the current BTC price cycle is far from the typical blow-off top. This conclusion is based on the analysis of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), which include both recently activated and long-dormant coins. “The recent increase in young UTXOs indicates growing participation from new traders,” he notes. “However, we have not yet reached the extreme levels seen during previous market peaks.”
Graph Accompanying the Analysis Shows that “Young” Coins (Under Three Months Old) Usually Make Up Over 70% of UTXOs During FOMO Periods, Typical of Market Peaks.
“The current data indicates increasing market activity, but the share of young UTXOs is still not at historically high levels,” the analysis states. “This could mean that Bitcoin still has room for growth, but traders should carefully monitor the ratio between young coins and long-term holders for potential warning signs of a peak.”
Other analytical firms, including Glassnode, are also tracking this indicator. According to them, young coins currently make up just over half of UTXOs, which is still below the levels observed at previous bull market peaks.
Lunar New Year and Bitcoin Seasonality
The increase in trading volume in Asia before the Lunar New Year also supports bullish sentiment, as this pattern is well-known in the crypto space.
According to digital financial company Matrixport, January is the second-worst month for Bitcoin, with an average decline of 1% over the last decade. Only September is weaker, with an average drop of 3%. In contrast, February is one of the strongest months for BTC, with an average increase of 14%, only behind October with a 23% rise, earning it the nickname “Uptober” among crypto traders. The Lunar New Year usually occurs at the end of January or the beginning of February, and statistics show that BTC has recorded impressive returns during this period. Matrixport states: “Bitcoin has recorded positive returns during the Chinese New Year in 11 out of the last 12 years, leading to an 83% success rate for this period.”
On January 27, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States. At the same time, the Chinese AI app DeepSeek quickly topped the Apple App Store charts, which alarmed traders and intensified concerns about the AI race between the U.S. and China. However, BTC rebounded back above the six-figure mark just a day before the Lunar New Year.
Bitcoin on the Brink of a New Rally?
Bitcoin’s current consolidation movement reinforces expectations of a future price increase. Popular trader Jelle predicts that a break and daily close above $110,000 could trigger the next bullish impulse. “This bullish flag has a target around $145,000. The breakout has already happened and was successfully retested,” he commented, sharing the BTC/USD chart. “A daily close above $110,000 and we’re in the game!”
Despite short-term uncertainty, historical patterns and seasonal factors suggest that Bitcoin could continue its bullish trend in the coming months.

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