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BTC – In the middle of nowhere / according to the DeM oscillator /

Cryptocurrency is not part of Varchev Finance’s portfolio and does not constitute a trade recommendation.

Bitcoin was saved from a test of the last bottom yesterday, after falling below 18700. As the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (9pm) approaches, more short positions are being closed as the news of the aggressive hike played out as early as the release of the worse than expected CPI.

As a result – a spike has formed, suggesting we may see a retest of the 65 SMA and the 2nd descending diagonal around 21880.

This could provide an opportunity for short positioning as macro headwinds are far from over.

Sequential printed 8s in today’s session, we are waiting for 9s to end the mini move tomorrow or in the next few days.

On the other hand, the DeMarker Oscillator is in the “middle of nowhere”, suggesting that movement in both directions is equally possible.

On a weekly chart, we are still moving in the narrow range and the close of the previous weekly bar, tends to continue in a downward direction.

In support of this, the DeMarker Oscillator has been broken to the downside, and the Sequential continues the downtrend with a 6-pointer.

The price section is near the main diagonal resistance and is below the 200 period moving average. All these factors suggest a medium-term price decline. However, it is possible to retest the heavy diagonal in the area around 21800 before that.

On the Market profile chart, the price is above the lower Value area, which suggests that the next few sessions may see a move towards the Point of Control area.

Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the main downtrend will trigger many stop loss orders on short positions and signal a medium-term trend reversal.

The stop loss zone is above the last high and outside the downtrend, measured against the size of the margin account.


 Dealer Anatoliy Pavlov

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