Jim Cramer and Wall Street agree on one thing — the Trump rally for the stock market must come to an end. The question is what will cause it to end, and when.
“I don’t think it is over. It is just morphing into other areas not yet picked over, which is what happens when much of the S&P 500, has jaunted higher and the Russell 2000 (RUT).
Cramer noted various positives in the stock market right now and told investors to take note on a day like Monday, when the Trump rally slowed down.
The first positive is that President-elect Donald Trump‘s appointments thus far have not been that bad, Cramer said. A few picks were “oddball” and investors might not agree with them, but Trump hasn’t done anything to make Wall Street sense that it is in real trouble.
“I think the only issue would be if companies genuinely stop offshoring and people begin to worry about what that will mean for the cost of pretty much everything … but I think that is very unlikely,” Cramer said.
The second positive is that the weather has gotten cold, which matters tremendously for retail. Natural gas companies need the cold weather, too.
The third positive Cramer outlined is stocks’ momentum. He has his eye on packaged goods stocks like Kimberly-Clark (KMB), and if The FED makes a muted statement in the event that it raises rates in December. This could cause bank stocks to stall out.
“When you get a head of steam like this going into the last month of the year, you typically end up with a rally that will gain fuel because money managers won’t look as negative as they may sound when they are off the desk,” Cramer said.
Finally, Cramer sensed that mergers aren’t done yet, either. There are too many stocks that are suggesting that the takeover environment has improved, like Rite Aid (RAD).
“In short, there is just too much smoke. There will be fire,” Cramer said.
While Cramer did acknowledge that stocks are overbought, he thinks that could be a good sign. It means there is real money pouring into stocks.