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Deutsche Bank: EURUSD – Traders Horribly Positioned For Expected Rate Moves

U.S and euro zone interest rates are widely expected to diverge yet EUR/USD traders have decided now is the time to bet on a rise. That leaves them badly positioned for expected changes in U.S. interest rates, just as other currency traders are betting heavily on a stronger dollar. Betting against the trend usually hurts. And if EUR/USD traders are wrong, their error could lead to a deeper and perhaps much more abrupt drop. EUR/USD dropped 1.2135-1.1186 after June’s Federal Reserve meeting brought hints of a change in U.S. monetary policy. Expectations have quickly evolved from a taper to possible hikes, and then to the number of hikes, which could see a 150 bps gap in rates materialize this year.…

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 Head of Trading Dimitar Kalapov

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