EUR/CHF in a chess draw – but whose move will it be next?

Fundamentals:

In recent weeks, EUR/CHF has been moving within a tighter range, with the market remaining sensitive to comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB).

The SNB maintains a hawkish stance on inflation and leaves the door open for another rate hike if price pressures increase again. The Swiss franc remains highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, making it a preferred safe haven during risk-off sentiment – especially now, with the Middle East and tensions around China remaining a focal point for markets.

From the Eurozone’s side, although the ECB is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle (with the first cut expected in June), better-than-expected macroeconomic data and the stability of Germany support the euro. However, the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the SNB (where the SNB may remain more hawkish for longer) puts some downward pressure on the cross in the medium term. CPI data and PMI indices will set the tone for the ECB’s expected actions. Regarding geopolitics and risk sentiment – any instability plays in favor of the franc.

Bank Expectations

• The average banking expectations are for the pair to reach 0.96 by the end of 2025.
• Currently, the price is below these average levels, and the market is at the bottom of a choppy market.

EUR Commercials/Non-commercials

CHF Commercials/Non-commercials

• Commercials support the fundamentals, showing large exposures from major institutions on the franc and reductions on the euro, driven mainly by uncertainty.

Technical Picture:

EURCHF Daily

• Completed count of Sequential’s 9 at the bottom of a choppy market, confirmed by the Megaphone’s 7.
• DeMarker is turning and exiting from oversold.

EURCHF Weekly

• 7 on Megaphone.

EURCHF 4-Hours

• 13 on Sequential, confirmed by the 7 on Megaphone.
• Buy orders around 0.92052.

Market Interest Point

• Point of Interest at 0.936, which is also the heaviest volume level in the last two months.

Conclusion:

Currently, the price is at low and favorable levels for buying, at the bottom of a choppy market, well below the average banking expectations at the moment. The technical picture also signals bullish price action as a position may start to be built from the current level of 0.925, with a target of 0.960, which is both the upper boundary of the range and the average price level for major banking institutions.