From a technical point of view, we think the push under 1.08, the level that has supported the market following the post-ECB bounce from the low 1.05 area but which was also pivotal support for spot earlier in the year, puts the EUR in a much weakened position.
Dec. bounce in EUR was “nothing more than a short-term correction,” and seasonal patterns show that EUR performance early in year is “typically poor” though weakness is less pronounced over last decade; when EUR has a bad start to year, “it is usually quite bad.
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