EUR/JPY: Can We Expect a New Downward Impulse for the Currency Cross?

EUR/JPY Daily Chart:

EUR/JPY Daily Chart:

EUR/JPY Daily Chart:

Technical Picture:

• Correction of the downward impulse
• Demarker is heading towards the oversold zone after rejecting the overbought zone, indicating a potential end to the upward correction around 162.45
• Sequential starts an upward count
• Bearish engulfing price action, signaling a potential start of a new downward impulse
• Upward trading channel, with the lower boundary providing momentary support
• Price breaks through an internal upward trendline around 170.00
• 200 SMA is providing resistance
• 38.2 Fibonacci level at 162.45 is resisting the upward correction

EUR/JPY Price Forecast:

The expectations of bank traders for the fourth quarter are distributed across a broad range between 158 and 164.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast:

Price forecasts for the end of the third quarter of 2025 are stabilizing around 159.

In conclusion:

If the yen cross closes below the psychological level of 160, the current daily bar signals further development of the downward impulse towards the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 159.40. A break and hold of this zone could lead the downward movement to reach and retest the previous local low on the daily chart around 155.

Alternatively:

If the cross manages to close a daily bar above the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 163, and shows a reversal price action, I expect the upward correction to continue towards the resistance cluster at the 165 level—50.0 Fibonacci and 200 SMA. If these zones hold, I anticipate the price to move towards the combined 61.8 Fibonacci level and 65 SMA in the 167-167.20 range.