EUR/USD – D1
Our expectations – EUR/USD one of the most traded currency pair seems to find long-term support in the zone between 1.1500 – 1.1600. Although the ECB remains cautious, traders are beginning to accumulate the likelihood that the ECB will begin to cut QE and raise interest rates at a later stage in Q3 of 2019. Characteristic of the ECB, a change in euro area economic performance will cause central bankers to reflect on the monetary tightening plan. We must not forget the trade war along which tensions escalate with each passing day.
Technically, the price has reached a strong support area. The zone is formed by a long-term horizontal, supported by a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the main upward trend. In addition, the short-term down channel is break and tested. Last month’s price movement also formed a Double Bottom formation, which is not yet been activated. From Price Action’s point of view, at both bottoms, the price forms a trend-turning bar formations. At the first bottom we have an engulfing bullish bar, and on the second bottom formed during the last 4 days there are 2 bullish pin bars – positive for the price. Sequential counts 1 on top – signal to start a new trend. DeMarker points upwards from over-sales, while at the same time forming divergence over price. 50 and 200SMA remain in place.
SL: 1.1380 – The zone is strong and, as we know, big traders are aware of this. The pitch is remote because such strong support/resistance zones are ideal for Stop Hunting by Bank Traders!
Alternative Scenario: If the price moves below the support area and stays there in several successive bars, the positive scenario will be spoiled and more likely to see a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar.
Trader Petar Milanov