For iNSIDER club traders: Monday Traders Narrative: What Moves the Markets and the Latest Insights.

STOCK MARKET
A curious indicator, with an interesting ratio on Friday. The put/call ratio for the VIX jumped to 1.13, the first showing above 1.0 since October 5. That’s an awful lot of puts being bought for every call on the VIX ( traders expect VIX to fall, stocks to rise ). I don’t think the current market is a proper comparison to early October ( we had corrected two months by then ), but we rallied for a few days and fell again after that ratio.

VIX – two equal ticks above is a strong down formation that will only be confirmed at a fresh low relative to Friday’s bar = would be an indication of strong indices and stocks.

US and European futures start trading higher, correcting to fill the gap from Friday’s close.
-Positive Asian session.

CRYPTO:

BTC: Classic bull formation if confirmed with full tick held above upper diagonal.

FOREX MARKETS:

Short yen bets are at their highest levels since 2007.
-Target levels in USD/JPY – 152 /the limit from which the BoJ can enter Forex markets/

Germany’s industrial production increased 2.1% m/m vs. expectations of 0.6%

Morgan Stanley: The market reaction shows that investors are setting up for a scenario in which the economy will avoid a recession.
-Market breadth improving as investors shift capital out of tech sector
-Focus on cyclical sectors such as energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary

Among energy stocks – OXY is posting its biggest gain in 7 weeks, outpacing other oil stocks. There has been an increase in call options 3 times the standard, hinting at solid bullish interest.
-With rising oil prices, companies in the sector are becoming more attractive.
-Truist Securities raises the 12M price target for the stock to $84 levels, or just over 20% return potential from current levels.

In the metals: gold reports another ATH today, silver successfully moves above 27 after a slight corrective move late last week and a strong bounce back.

Funds continue to buy silver aggressively. They are also adding 0.1% to their gold exposure.