How did J. Gundlach’s expectations for 2019 developed

A year ago, Jeffrey Gundlach expressed his cautious view of the markets after announcing 2019 “the year in which no one made money.” As it became clear, 2019 has indeed turned out to be a year in which almost no one made a profit – stocks, bonds, resources and even Bitcoin.

This article is about the previous projections of DoubleLine Capital’s chief investment strategist, and later today in the Just Markets webcast, Gundlach will present his expectations for 2020. He is expected to touch on a number of topics, including his views on gold and his concerns. for the US deficit. The topic of the presidential election may also be affected.

Here’s what Gundlach predicted a year ago and what he said came true.

Emerging markets

What Gundlach said of them was: “After years of underperformance, now is the right time to invest in EM markets.”

What happened: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index yielded 19% yields in 2019 compared to 27% on the MSCI All World Index and 31% on the S&P500.


Gundlach: “European stocks are a real trap”.

What happened? The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 27% (measured in dollars), the highest growth since 2013. The FTSE100 added 17% to its value (measured in pounds) and 22% (measured in dollars).

The US dollar

Gundlach’s statement: “If the Fed is less hawkish, the dollar is likely to weaken.”

What really happened: The USD hit its lowest point on January 9, 2019. The Fed cut interest rates three times and the dollar index ended the year with little change since early 2019.

Oil and resources in general

“It is possible to see a zig-zag movement in energy market prices and resources” – Jeffrey Gundlach, 2019.

How things went: The Bloomberg commodities index really did so, rising 5.4% for 2019. Oil prices jumped 34% and their rally continues into early 2020 with tensions between Iran and the United States.

Debt markets

What Gundlach Said: “Get rid of junk bonds while prices are still high and watch for a reduction in investment debt ratings.”

What happened: Junk bonds had their best year since 2016, while investment grade debt remained the most sought after since 2009, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Index.


Jeffrey G’s words: “Bitcoin, currently trading for $ 4,000, can easily go up to $ 5,000, but this increase will not be for the faint-hearted.

What happened: Bitcoin grew at $ 13,851 in June, ending the year at $ 7,200.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Graphs: Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 Trader Milko Zashev

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