It seems investors have placed their bets — or have done their hedging — for France’s April 23 first-round vote as the 10-year France-Germany spread continues to trade sideways. Macron’s victory on the second-round ballot has emerged as consensus. But a stronger-than-expected showing from Le Pen (say, above 30%) in the first round may be the biggest threat to his success, as it would raise concern her support is underestimated by the polls.
As for gauging expectations for the first vote, it depends on which poll you look at. The Ifop daily poll puts Le Pen ahead of Macron for the first time since March 20, while a Harris poll has Macron ahead by one percentage point. Both surveys show Macron defeating Le Pen on the second ballot, though, roughly in line with the 60%-40% result most polls have been predicting of late.
An ECB tweet reveals these “four criteria to confirm a sustained adjustment”
Inflation is on a path to levels below but close to 2% over a meaningful medium-term horizon
Inflation will be durable and stabilize around levels below but close to 2% with sufficient confidence
Inflation will be self-sustained: it will maintain its trajectory even with diminishing support from monetary policy
The relevant metric is euro area inflation