Slowdown in global economic growth is still a more likely scenario than synchronized recovery, even when central banks are pursuing a loose monetary policy. The US lowered its rates three times this year. We will expect interest rates from the central bank of Australia and the UK this week, but both chances are small. Traders estimate the chances of lowering rates below 50%, which almost certainly means that there will be no surprises in the market.
While the US withdrawal from escalating trade tensions between the US and China has led stocks close to new records, $ 17 trillion in bonds. have a negative return and the key market signal for a recession in the US is still flashing red.
Most central banks around the world, led by the Fed and the ECB, cut interest rates, and fiscal stimulus seems inevitable. Growth and inflation forecasts for most economies appear to be at a slower pace or at best moving at historically modest rates, according to Reuters studies.
With respect to the central banks surveyed, the sentiment seems to continue to ease monetary policy next year. 71% of 177 economists say that slowing down the global economy is the more likely scenario.
This view has turned dramatically over six months ago, when economists were almost divided over what was more likely. The optimism shared by many analysts that trade tensions between the US and China will cool seems to have evaporated.
During the new week, we will monitor price action at indexes close to their historical highs. Levels from which we have often seen sharp declines, which subsequently turned out to be just healthy adjustments.
EUR / USD is also at relatively high levels, which means that in the next week traders will probably try to find a ceiling on current movement and short ones to take over the market. The lack of economic news that can act as a catalyst for the dollar means that technical analysis will again be a strong factor. As such, levels around 200 periodic and multiple diagonal and horizontal resistances can be a good target for closing long and converting mid-term positions to short.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov