J.P. Morgan sees a new peak for gold in 2025. Here’s why

For two years now, J.P. Morgan strategists have been advising investors to buy gold, and for two years now, they’ve been right. On Tuesday, the bank predicted a “triple crown,” saying gold was once again the best asset to buy.

“Gold still appears well positioned as a hedge against heightened levels of uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic environment in the early stages of the Trump administration in 2025,” wrote a team led by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy. Gold’s continued rally is reminiscent of the late 1970s, another period when inflation was a persistent problem. Its price has risen 29% this year, recently reaching $2,667 an ounce. It hit a record high of $2,800 in October but has since fallen since Donald Trump was elected president. The dollar’s ​​value has risen since the election, and gold typically trades inversely with the greenback. Kaneva believes the post-election decline is “driven by positioning, not a fundamental shift.” J.P. Morgan predicts that gold will rise to $3,000 an ounce by 2025, with an average price of $2,950.

There are two scenarios that could boost the precious metal’s value. First, gold could be in a winning position “if U.S. policies actually become more disruptive (increased tariffs, rising trade tensions, higher inflation, a significant widening of the budget deficit, and increased risks to economic growth),” according to the bank. Gold can serve as a hedge against inflation, and central banks would have an incentive to buy it.

It could also benefit if interest rates and the dollar’s ​​value fall rapidly, retreating from their post-election highs. Typically, gold would rise in such a scenario, the bank noted.

Gold is not the only precious metal that looks set for strong growth in 2025. J.P. Morgan said silver and platinum also have “strong underlying deficit indicators” and could rise later in the year. Silver could hit $38 an ounce from a recent $31, while platinum could climb to $1,200 from its current $960, the bank said.

J.P. Morgan is not the only bank that believes gold will continue to rise. Bank of America also expects it to hit $3,000 an ounce and advises investors to buy it if it falls below $2,500. Strategists there believe that Trump’s policies could trigger a spike in inflation, making gold even more attractive.