USD/JPY – H1
Our expectations – given the development of the trade war, I expect the JPY to grow against the USD. Current levels give a good opportunity for a short position with a short stop. Looking at H1, it is clear that the price breaks through a major diagonal and goes under the main support zone – already a resistance. The zone is formed by horizontal, diagonal and 23.6% Fibonacci correction. In Appendices 20 and 50 the periodic meanings are placed in a sword. RSI is near an over-sales area but has not yet entered – probably the impulse to continue. Price Action – the price was a breakthrough after it became clear that Trump considered new tariffs, then slightly adjusted upwards but failed to return to the upward channel. Evaluating the prospects for China, I expect the country to introduce import duties and the US to respond appropriately. This will strengthen the positions of the JPY. I’m still waiting for traders to push the Sell button.
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes back to the upside, the negative scenario will break and we’re more likely to see growth.
Trader Petar Milanov