Last chance below $100K? Bitcoin on the verge of a historic breakthrough

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted below the 98 level on April 21, hitting a three-year low. This catapulted gold to a new all-time high, while Bitcoin also shows strength, surpassing $88,000.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, believes this could be the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $100,000. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve to announce the buyback of U.S. government bonds, which would act as a “bazooka” for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

It seems that the big players are gearing up for an upward move as they have been accumulating Bitcoin in March and April. According to Glassnode data, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoin increased from 2,037 at the end of February to 2,107 by April 15.

Will Bitcoin bulls be able to sustain these high levels and trigger a rally to $100,000? Will altcoins follow? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

Analysis of the S&P 500 Index Price

The S&P 500 index (SPX) faced resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (5,399) on April 14.

The 5,119 level is critical support to monitor during any downward move. If broken, the index could drop to 4,950. Bulls are expected to vigorously defend the zone between 4,950 and 4,835.

However, if the price rebounds from 5,119, it will signal that bulls are trying to form a higher low. In that case, the index may oscillate between 5,119 and 5,500 for a while. Buyers will need to push the price above 5,500 to consider the correction over.

Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Price

The U.S. Dollar Index resumed its downward trend on April 21, showing that bears still control the market.

The index may drop to 97.50, which could act as strong support. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in an oversold region, signaling a potential short-term bounce. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the zone between 99 and 100.27 during any recovery attempt. If the price turns downward from this zone, there is a risk the index may fall to 95.

The first sign of strength would be a breakout and close above the 100.27 resistance. This would indicate significant buying at lower levels. A short-term trend change is likely if buyers manage to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 101.64.

Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price

Bitcoin made a decisive upward leap after several days of trading within a narrow range, reaching the critical resistance level at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $88,238.

The moving averages are on the verge of forming a bullish crossover, and the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating an advantage for buyers. If the price breaks above the 200-day SMA, it would suggest that the BTC/USDT pair has likely bottomed out in the short term. In this case, a rally to $95,000 and eventually to the psychologically important $100,000 level could follow.