A quiet start to an otherwise turbulent trading week is emerging. Markets in Asia remained in search of directions, with centers in China and Hong Kong closed for national holidays, so trading volumes were significantly lower.
Today, the economic calendar in Europe does not provide major releases, so I bet the cautious attitude of market players to continue. Of course, we remain alert for news about US-China trade talks that begin later this week. Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, who will lead the Chinese contingent of high-level talks beginning Thursday, commented that he would submit a proposal to Washington that would not include commitments to reform Chinese industrial policy or government subsidies, which have been the target for years complaints from the US. According to a Bloomberg report, China does not intend to negotiate key US demands, which should not surprise anyone at this stage. Whenever a round of negotiations is approaching, optimistic rumors come up, backed by naive tweets that good progress is being made or whatever. Just to get a big disappointment with the start of discussions and finally get to one big round – nothing! I ask again, are there any surprises?
Another major potential catalyst remains naturally Brexit, with the pound-sensitive pound of rhetoric unpredictable against the uncertainty of bureaucracy in the UK.
The big event in an otherwise empty calendar today will come with closed exchanges in Europe, namely the statement by Fed President Jerome Powell in the United States. It will hold a Q&A session, possibly addressing topics on stock market development, a strong labor market, the future of monetary policy in the country and the continuing effects of the trade war on the global economy.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov