Cash flows are again embraced by negativity and uncertainty. Because of the renewed concerns that trade talks will end again, markets have responded appropriately – with declines in both yesterday’s US state and Asian.
Europeans will not be spared. Early indications of major European indices point to a weaker opening, and today we expect the negative sentiment to remain permanently settled. Markets are also under the influence of the reporting season, which for the time being does not impress. However, even weaker US data can not encourage investors to buy more and more against the backdrop of the prospects that the Fed will loosen policy. The market is changing its priorities again. At the moment, the focus is on the reports, then the commercial war and finally the data and the Fed.
The “smart money” we expect today to be focused on gold, yen and franc, with the risk of aversion brought about by the rebounding uncertainty. We expect oil to continue to be cheaper because of the larger oil reserves and the weakening of the world economy, which leads to a weaker demand for “black gold.”
On the FX front, we expect the US dollar to continue to lose positions against its main opponents, especially for the pound – expect the unexpected. Parliament will try to block Brexit’s no-deal, and Boris Johnson is now unconvincing that he will be able to get Britain on October 31, 2019. The rumors are flashing, basically talking about GBP / USD parity if the UK comes out without a deal.
The economic calendar is scarce today, but the markets will also focus on UK retail sales data, and later US data on unemployment claims and the Philadelphia index.
Trader Martin Nikolov