ts were also trading in an upward direction. These optimistic sentiments are also being carried across Europe, where major stock indices point to a green start. However, news that the US-China summit will take place gives rise to investors’ hopes that a long trade war may be over, something that weighs on markets and the global economy.
Last night, assets remained relatively quiet, with Australia just minutes ago reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% (1.00%) upfront, citing that in these times of uncertainty and contraction, global growth was perfectly normal and interest rates are low.
Today, during the trading session, we expect data on production PMI in Germany, the UK and the European bloc. The most important will certainly be the relay in Germany, with the fourth largest economy in the world (and the first in Europe) being strongly oriented towards the production and export of goods. These values will give a clear indication of how the country’s global contraction is affecting.
The fact that the trade war seems to be coming to an end should not mislead investors. It is entirely possible for Trump, after settling his bills with China, to pay attention to Europe as speculation on the import duty on car imports intensifies. Germany, as a producer country, will lose a great deal of this.
It is also important to mention that today is the first day of the new month and quarter, so we will certainly be watching the allocation of funds and the movement of cash flows from the assets, which will create volatility, so that traders will remain cautious, at least in the beginning of the session.
I expect real trading volumes to open during the second part of the day, around 3:00 pm when US investors wake up and Pro Traders from City of London return to their desks after lunch break.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov