The trading session in Europe will start relatively quietly, following the example of Asian assets. There is no economic data, so there will be no excitement and catalysts for new movements from this front. What everyone will be watching today is the US Worksheets at 3.30pm, which means that trade will remain prudent until then. Following the release of the report, real market sentiment will emerge and cash flows will determine movements by the end of the first week of the new quarter.
Expectations are close to 100K for nonfarm payrolls, which, according to many, is very low reading, but it should be understood that the US economy and workforce are not growing fast enough.
No large GDP growth is required, and no large monthly job growth is required to keep unemployment below 4%. And if it remains below 4%, then consumers will continue to spend money and avoid a recession.
It is interesting to note that the US indices made a reversal yesterday, even managing to close the profit session. The S&P 500 went into positive territory after registering more than 1% loss the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about its opening levels, having previously been above 300 points in the red, and the Nasdaq Composite is up about 0.2%. Shares fell earlier in the day after the Institute for Supply Management reported that the US services sector had fallen to its lowest levels since August 2016. ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 52.6 in September, with an expected 55.3. However, the Fed’s chances of cutting interest rates this month are rising after poor economic data. Expectations for action by the central bank this month rose to 93.5% from 77% yesterday.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov