Today, at 15:30 local time, we expect Nonfarm Payrolls data in the United States, with better Wednesday data for private sector hires (measured by ADP) creating expectations for positive results today.
Contrary to expectations, recruitment in the private sector took a massive blow in April with only 103K of newly created jobs, making things set for a rebound today that would support the Fed’s words of improvement and stability in the US labor market. Analysts also expect average hourly wages to remain at 2.7% and unemployment rates at 4.0%.
Particularly importance for the dollar today will have salaries, as a stronger data will be reflected in an impulse for the greenback.
The dollar remains relatively strong today, indicating that the positive expectations are accumulating in its price. With better data today, as are the expectations of the majority of bank players, we can expect a further appreciation of the US dollar. Alternately worse data on NFP, unemployment rates and hourly wages will be strongly negative for both the indexes and the USD. In such a scenario, we can look for long positions, especially with EURUSD and short with USDJPY.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov