NZD/USD – H4
Our expectations – The recent upward momentum of USD has contributed to the return of the price back to the downward channel and the current Price Action clearly shows who is in charge. In the last 12 hours, the price managed to break the short-term upward channel and go back to the mid-term downward, below 23.6% Fibonacci correction and 50SMA. In the break test, we observed a certain volatility in the pair, but after the bearded pin bar and the current downward pulse that activated it, I think short positions are the more appropriate option. In addition, the price and DeMarker form a divergence that supports short-a. If we look at DeMarker we will notice that it signals a potential upward impulse. It is then best to position more conservative traders. Entry from current levels is risky, but nevertheless gives a good risk factor – return. Sequential counts 4th below, from possible 13 – downward movement is still in its infancy.
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes back above the resistance zone, the negative scenario will be spoiled and more likely to see a currency pair raise.
Trader Petar Milanov