OPEC+ Likely to Keep Production Levels Unchanged in March, Sources Say

Delegates from OPEC+ said they currently expect to stick to plans to keep oil production unchanged next month, when the group meets on Sunday, amid a global surplus and a wave of geopolitical risks.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will hold their monthly videoconference to review a decision—originally taken in November—to freeze production levels during the first quarter, after output was ramped up rapidly last year.

Four delegates, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they expect policy to remain unchanged, although two of them added that discussions among members have yet to take place.

For now, there are no indications that the organization needs to respond to this month’s turbulent developments in member countries Venezuela and Iran, one source said. However, a significant supply disruption could prompt the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners to increase production, another delegate added.

Oil prices have edged slightly higher since the start of the year, supported by widespread unrest in Iran and supply constraints in Kazakhstan and Russia, with Brent futures trading around $66 per barrel on Monday. Even so, prices are only about $1 higher than at the beginning of November, when OPEC+ announced the first-quarter production pause, which the group said reflected a seasonal slowdown in demand.