Risks and uncertainty of the oil market

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for crude oil prices from $ 7.50 to $ 85 per barrel for the second half of 2018. Increased oil production from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Kuwait would not be enough to balance the market.

Oil shortages are expected due to US sanctions that have cut off Iranian exports of crude oil. This means that Iran’s output may fall by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) at a time of great demand. According to Morgan Stanley, exports will fall to a minimum. Currently Iran exports to Europe, Japan and South Korea is about 1 million barrels of produced 2.7 million barrels.

“Last week, there was an increased risk of Iran cutting its oil supply,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist and chief executive officer of the European Oil and Gas Research Bank.

“All the time, demand remains stable and is expected to accelerate seasonally in the second half of 2018,” he added.

Crude oil is traded at about $ 73 a barrel, the next resistance of $ 80.50. If we break into this three-year level, we can expect many long positions. A short-order correction is possible, after the technical chapter head and the weekly schedule shoulder, the RSI also shows a decrease signal.

Saudi Arabia is currently expanding its production and is likely to produce an average of 10.8 million barrels per square meter in the second half of the year, compared to a preliminary estimate of 10.1 million barrels. Also, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to pump more oil, but says it will not be enough to balance the market.

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