The releases we are watching in today’s session

The main event in the European session was the UK employment report. The data was significantly better than expected, especially regarding wage growth, which gave a boost to the GBP. From a market pricing perspective, no major changes are anticipated as the current interest rate is widely expected to be maintained by the BoE this week. In the US session, the main focus will be on the Canadian CPI and US retail sales.

15:30 – Canada CPI for November
The annual change in Canada’s CPI is expected to be 2.0%, unchanged from the previous 2.0%, while the monthly indicator is forecasted to be 0.1% compared to the previous 0.4%. The annual Trimmed-Mean CPI is anticipated to remain at 2.6%, while the annual Median CPI is expected to be 2.4% compared to the previous 2.5%.

The BoC recently removed the phrase “if the economy evolves in line with our latest forecast, we expect to cut the interest rate further,” suggesting that we have reached the peak of the “soft” stance. The central bank is likely to shift towards a 25 bp rate cut and slow the pace of easing.

15:30 – US Retail Sales for November
US monthly retail sales are expected to be 0.5% compared to the previous 0.4%, while the sales excluding automobiles are forecasted to be 0.4% compared to the previous 0.1%. Focus will be on the monthly control group indicator, expected to be 0.4% compared to the previous -0.1%.

Consumer spending remains stable, which is expected given the positive growth in real wages and a resilient labor market. Additionally, we are observing a strong recovery in consumer confidence reports, indicating that consumers’ financial conditions are stable or improving.

Central Bank Speakers:
11:00 – Rehn from ECB (neutral – voting)