The releases we’re following today.

Today is likely to be the busiest day of the month, as two central bank decisions and several important U.S. economic data points are expected. After today, we will conclude with the FOMC’s interest rate decision next Wednesday, and then enter the Christmas holiday break.

10:30 – Swiss National Bank (SNB) Decision
The market predicts a 57% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the SNB. Inflation is significantly lower than the central bank’s forecasts, and the strength of the Swiss franc has not helped. The new SNB chairman, Schlegel, appears more decisive than his predecessor, hinting at the possibility of negative rates if necessary to reduce the appetite for the safe-haven franc. This has likely increased the chances of a 50 basis point cut today.

15:15 – European Central Bank (ECB) Decision
The ECB is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with the main interest rate falling to 3.00%. Market expectations have been very aggressive recently due to a series of weaker-than-expected economic data, but the majority of ECB officials have opposed a 50 basis point cut in December. Following this reduction, the market expects five more rate cuts in 2025, which may prove too much if the economy recovers next year.

15:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for November
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year (Y/Y) is expected to be 2.6%, compared to 2.4% previously, while the month-over-month (M/M) is expected to be 0.2%, the same as the previous value. The core PPI year-over-year is expected to be 3.2%, compared to 3.1% previously, while the month-over-month (M/M) is expected to be 0.2%, compared to 0.3% before.

This report is unlikely to have a significant impact since yesterday’s CPI data from the U.S. confirmed the 25 basis point rate cut expected next week. However, it will provide a better assessment of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is expected at the end of the month.
Even if we get a positive surprise, market expectations are likely to remain almost unchanged. However, if there is a surprise to the downside, we will likely see a repeat of yesterday’s situation, where the dollar will be sold, and risk assets will rise.

15:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims
Jobless claims in the U.S. remain among the most important economic data each week, as they represent a more up-to-date indicator of the labor market’s condition.
Initial claims remain within the range of 200K to 260K, established in 2022, while continuing claims remain at the high levels of the cycle.
This week, initial claims are expected to be 220K compared to 224K previously, while continuing claims are expected to be 1,875K compared to 1,871K before.