Trade Shock Has Yet to Come to the Euro Area

Slow exports largely explain weaker growth in the eurozone last year, but a careful review of Bloomberg Economics data shows that the US-China trade war has only a small direct impact – instead it is due to the UK and Turkey. The decline in global sentiment is mainly due to the latest deterioration in the economic outlook. Is there a further shrinkage? Quite possibly – imposing tariffs on European carmakers or the destructive hard Brexit will put a heavy blow on the exporters.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Graphics: Used with permission from Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 Trader Aleksandar Kumanov

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