Until when will Bitcoin consolidate

The price of Bitcoin has been consolidating in a range of approximately $5,800 since January 16, with the $110,000 level remaining unattainable.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp show that the BTC price fluctuates within a narrow range between $106,150 and $99,700.

Main Reasons Why Bitcoin’s Price Remains Blocked Today
Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today. Weak demand from retail investors for Bitcoin above $100,000. Bitcoin’s price faces immediate resistance at the $103,000 level. Uncertainty surrounding the first FOMC meeting for 2025. One of the key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price stagnation is the anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is expected on January 29.

Important Information: The Federal Reserve’s policies have a deep impact on global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. An increase in interest rates typically leads to a stronger dollar, as higher rates attract investors seeking better returns from dollar-denominated assets. A strong dollar has a reverse effect on Bitcoin’s price, as it becomes relatively more expensive for investors using other currencies. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve signals no change or adopts a more dovish policy, it may support Bitcoin’s value, as lower rates encourage investments in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Traders expect the central bank to maintain the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the key interest rate. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at the January 29 meeting is already 99.5%.

A Broader Look: Futures markets do not expect a rate cut of a quarter percent before June, followed by another one by the end of the year. Investors are taking a “wait and see” approach, leading to reduced trading volumes and a lack of clear price movement for Bitcoin.

Lack of Interest from Retail Investors
The volatile price movement of Bitcoin over the past two weeks is partly due to weakness in demand from retail investors, notes analyst Charlie.

Important Information: The 30-day change in retail investor demand for Bitcoin provides valuable insight into the current activity of both existing and new investors. This indicator has dropped from a peak of 31.75% on December 15 to -13% at the time of writing. These levels were last seen in May 2021 when Bitcoin was consolidating between $31,600 and $40,000.

The negative change in the 30-day demand from retail investors points to selling pressure, suggesting that the market is experiencing a selling advantage. Spot market demand will recover once this indicator crosses into the positive zone above the zero line. If this happens, Bitcoin could potentially break out of consolidation, move through the supply zone between $106,150 and $109,000, and enter a new pricing phase.

Bitcoin Price Must Recover $103,000
On January 27, the price of Bitcoin fell below the critical support of the psychological level of $103,000, as markets sold off after the launch of DeepSeek AI.

Key Levels to Watch:
The price of BTC is currently struggling to recover this level, trading at $102,627 at the time of writing. A recovery of the $103,000 level means that “the game is on again,” says popular Bitcoin analyst Mark Cullen. Cullen explains that until bullish investors regain this level, the price of BTC could “test lower levels” and potentially fall to the January 27 lows below $98,000.

The drop below $103,000 prompted Bitcoin whales to buy from a liquidity block for sales below that level, which led to the “price suppression of BTC,” according to FireCharts shared by the trading resource Material Indicators. The market data provider said: “There is a new ladder of buy orders from $95,500 to $101,500, which makes me wonder if someone is trying to push the price down to fill some of those orders.”