US NFP and Reserve Bank of Australia will move the markets next week

No doubt a very exciting week is coming for us. Despite the holidays in the leading economies in the world, the flow of economic news will not stop even for a moment. The most important moment for all traders will remain for the end of the week, when we expect official United States Non farm Payrolls data. What we need to know about the US is that Tuesday and Wednesday, the United States will celebrate the Independence Day, and as you might guess, it will result in extremely low volatility in the days until Thursday, when big investors return and will focus their attention on labor market data. ADP preliminary data on new jobs in the US will be published on Thursday. Forecasts are upward from previous data to 190,000 from 178,000. However, official figures are expected to be lower than the previous one, from 200,000 to 223,000 in May. As we know, better data than forecasted will lead to a USD growth, a worse, to a downside. With better data, I expect the EUR / USD to re-test the support area that the bulls approved at the end of the week. For worse data, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to continue. Taking into account the much worse GDP data that was posted this week, I expect any bad data for the NFP to have a detrimental effect on the USD.

Yes, the US will be in focus, but that does not mean that the rest of the world will be idle. We are expecting a series of production PMI data on Monday. At 04:45, China is in line, with data other than forecast increasing the negativity alongside AUD and NZD, which is already at a level due to trade relations between the US and China. Later in the day between 11:00 and 12:00 are the Eurozone and the UK. Traders will turn their attention to the euro area, where better data will support the euro.

In the coming week, we must not forget Reserve Bank Of Australia’s decision. The bank will announce its decision on Tuesday at 7:30 am and will immediately publish the report on the central bank’s monetary policy. I expect central bankers to maintain prudent monetary policy, highlighting the problems that Donald Trump creates for China through import tariffs. This has a direct impact on the Australian economy, and while the relationship between the two largest economies in the world is not normalizing, RBA will remain cautious. To raise interest rates can not yet be talked and we will hardly see any change in tone.

Economic calendar for the week from 02.07 to 06.07.2018.

Holiday in Canada and Hong Kong
02:30 Australia – AIG Manufacturing index
02:50 Japan – Tankan Manufacturing Index
04:45 China – Caixin Manufacturing Index
10:15 Switzerland – Retail Sales
10:55 Germany – Manufacturing PMI
11:00 Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI
11:30 UK – Manufacturing PMI
12:00 Eurozone – Unemployment rate
16:45 USA – Manufacturing PMI
17:00 USA – ISM Manufacturing PMI

Holiday in the US – Independence Day (Celebrated on 3rd and 4th July)
Tentative, New Zealand – NZIER Business confidence
04:30 Australia – Building permits
07:30 Australia – RBA Interest rate decision
07:30 Australia – RBA Report on Monetary Policy
11:30 UK – Construction PMI
12:00 Eurozone – Retail Sales
23:30 US – API Crude oil inventories

Holiday in the US – Independence Day (Celebrated on 3rd and 4th July)
04:30 Australia – Retail Sales
04:30 Australia – Trade Balance
04:45 China – Services PMI
10:55 Germany – Services PMI
11:00 Eurozone – Services PMI
11:30 UK – Services PMI

09:00 Germany – Factory orders
10:15 Switzerland – CPI
15:15 USA – ADP Non Farm Payrolls
15:30 USA – Jobless claims
17:00 USA – ISM Production PMI
18:00 United States – Crude oil inventories
21:00 USA – FOMC Monetary Policy Report

02:30 Japan – Household spending
09:00 Germany – Industrial production
10:30 United Kingdom – Housing Price Index
15:30 USA – ADP Non Farm Payrolls
15:30 USA – Unemployment rate
15:30 US – Trade Balance
15:30 Canada – Unemployment Rate
20:00 USA – Baker Hughes Oil rig count

 Trader Petar Milanov

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