US Premarket – a green start on the last day of Q1.

Futures in the US are in the green. Sentiment is positive and the positive wave from Europe is likely to carry over to the US.

PCE Index fell to 5.0% year-on-year, forecasts were for a decline to 5.1%. A stronger slowdown in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is positive news that will also have an additional positive impact on trading today.

Despite the decline in the PCE Index, the dollar attempted to bounce back against a basket of major currencies as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. Several Fed policymakers have suggested that more monetary tightening will be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Money market bets are now pricing in a 50% chance the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in May and pause thereafter. The development of a short-term upward correction is possible with a potential target resistance zone 103.50 – 104.00.

Of the corporate sector, most bank stocks are trading in the green on premarkets.

Later today, the last important data for this week will be released – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (17:00). Forecasts are for a minimal decline compared to the previous month. Unless there is a sharp surprise in this data, it is very likely given that it is the last day of the month and the last day for Q1 that trading will remain in the green and US indexes will send out the week with solid gains.

 Dealer Radoslav Valov

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