FX forecast / USD/CAD – D1 / Our expectations
The medium-term trend remains long, but the weakness of the US labor market, deeper US isolation from the world, and sharply rising oil prices have begun to have a strong negative impact on the currency pair. Technically, the price is in the mid-term upward trend, but reaches key levels of resistance, and it’s good to consider positioning with Short or at least a partial reduction in lobbing positions. What do we have at the moment? Strong horizontal resistance zone formed by previous peaks. Also available is Head and Shoulders, whose Neckline has been tested over the past two weeks. A real breakthrough is not being realized, which speaks a lot about the ambition of sellers in the area. Price Action – Bears pin bar on levels of resistance and absorbing the Daily Bar – highly negative formation. DeMarker points down from a surplus zone – negative for the price. 61.8% Fibonacci correction also supports sales as it matches with the horizontal resistance zone and we do not have a bar closed above it.
Alternative Scenario: If the price goes above the resistance zone and stays there in several consecutive bars, the negative scenario will break and we are more likely to see a rise in the pair’s price.
Trader Petar Milanov