The Fed’s plans and the second interest rate hike, are already in place. It seems and there is nothing to prevent the Fed from raising them four times this year. This was confirmed at a press conference after the Fed’s decision on the base rate, and Jerome Powell said the US economy is doing well, with prospects for rising inflation and GDP by the end of the year. At the same time, the central bank expects unemployment to remain at a record low of 3.8%.
So far, everything looks great for the USD, but the reality is different and the market did not have its support for the dollar. The Fed’s decision contributed to short-term growth in the US dollar, but positivism vanished afterwards, largely because Powell’s interest rate appreciation and comments were long awaited by investors.
Let’s look at EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD – D1 (basic chart)
Interest rate lifting contributed to the formation of a short-term downward momentum reaching the support zone formed by a horizontal support zone and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the main trend started in December 2016 when it was fashionable to talk about parity … What refers to EUR/USD, it seems to investors that the ECB decision is more important tomorrow than the Fed today. From Price Action’s point of view, the bulls have clearly shown that they will not allow a decline before the ECB statement.
GBP/USD – D1
With GBP/USD, the behavior is similar, with a certain difference that the price is kept below 38.2% Fibonacci correction. Given the unclear end of the Brexit saga, I expect the pounds to remain under pressure, with a short-term test of the area around 38.2% Fibonacci correction. DeMarker remains in a neutral zone.
Trader Petar Milanov