This month, US central bankers face the hardest decision over the years, raising interest rates or to wait a little longer. Whatever the decision, about half of the economists will be dissatisfied.
Forty-eight percent of respondents 54 and economists by Bloomberg News expect an increase in interest rates in September, 24 percent say that the first step will happen in December. Seventeen percent are confident that in October will increase.
Different forecasts came after the turmoil in global financial markets last week. "The chance to increase interest rates in September were below 50%, but not by much," said Roberto Pearls, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC in Washington and a former economist at the FED. At the same time, the Fed will not pay a high price if it decides to postpone. "There neshto that inflation screaming or yelling financial bubble ready to explode tomorrow morning," he said.
Economists who expect an increase in September are of the view that the US economy has enough momentum to shake off the recent global stock market correction, prompted by the slowdown in China
The camp, which expected an increase in December includes some influential Wall Street economists, including those of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which have not changed their forecasts despite Fischer's comments on Saturday that there are "reasonable grounds" to believe that inflation will move upward.
Most economists expect inflation to remain below 2 per cent objective of the Fed for several quarters.
"Much depends on the continued stability of financial markets and report data on jobs," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics Inc. "If the markets do not swing wildly and receive more than 200 thousand increase in employment and a further decline in the unemployment rate, then I think the chances of an increase in the interest rate in September will return over 50%."
Jr Trader E. Dimitrov
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