China – New Loans in Yuan (January 9-15)
New loans (Consensus): 17.8 trillion yuan
Previous: 17.7 trillion yuan
Outlook: Data for new loans in December is expected to show a decline, continuing the trend observed in previous years as Chinese banks usually slow down lending towards the end of the year. The weak demand from households and corporations remains a primary concern, indicating that economic recovery has not yet gained momentum.
Germany – Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP)
Date: January 6, 15:00
Forecast: 2.5% (YoY)
Previous: 2.4%
Outlook: The core inflation in Germany is expected to slightly rise due to adverse base effects and higher fuel and energy prices. A slowdown in inflation is expected to resume in 2025, driven by lower energy and service contributions.
Switzerland – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Date: January 7, 09:30
Forecast: 0.8% (YoY)
Previous: 0.7%
Outlook: Inflation may slightly increase due to base effects in the energy sector, with fuel price adjustments likely playing a significant role. The Swiss National Bank is closely monitoring inflation trends, which remain close to the lower bound of its target range.
France – Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP)
Date: January 7, 09:45
Forecast: 2.0% (YoY)
Previous: 1.7%
Outlook: Inflation in France is expected to rise to 2.0% due to higher energy prices, adverse base effects, and rising food and clothing prices.
Eurozone – Flash CPI
Date: January 7, 12:00
Forecast: 2.4% (YoY)
Previous: 2.2%
Core CPI Forecast: 2.7% (YoY)
Outlook: Eurozone inflation is projected to rise due to higher fuel prices, but core inflation will likely remain steady around 2.7%. Inflation in services remains a key concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), as it continues to exceed the ECB’s target of 2%.
US – Trade Balance (November)
Date: January 7, 15:30
Forecast: -$77.2 billion
Previous: -$73.8 billion
Outlook: The trade deficit is expected to widen, driven by a 4.5% increase in imports, particularly in the “other goods” category, while exports rise due to a recovery in automobile exports.
US – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Date: January 7, 17:00
Forecast: 7.86 million
Previous: 7.74 million
Outlook: Job openings are expected to increase, but a rise in unemployment could lead to a decrease in the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, signaling a loosening labor market.
Australia – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Date: January 8, 02:30
Forecast: 2.0% (YoY)
Previous: 2.1%
Outlook: Australia’s inflation rate is expected to decrease slightly, falling within the target range of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This could lead to a potential interest rate cut in February 2025.
US – Initial Jobless Claims (January 4)
Date: January 8, 15:30
Forecast: 213k
Previous: 211k
Outlook: Seasonality factors may push jobless claims higher post-holidays, but the overall trend should remain stable.
US – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes
Date: January 8, 21:00
Outlook: The FOMC minutes from the December meeting are expected to shed light on the Fed’s deliberations regarding interest rate cuts, and how new government policies, especially those from the Trump administration, might affect economic forecasts.
Japan – Cash Earnings (YoY)
Date: January 9, 01:30
Forecast: 2.5%
Previous: 2.2%
Outlook: Japan’s wage growth is expected to have picked up due to minimum wage increases and a tighter labor market.
China – CPI and PPI
Date: January 9, 03:30
CPI Forecast: 0.1% (YoY)
PPI Forecast: -2.4% (YoY)
Outlook: China’s CPI inflation is expected to stay weak, with factory-gate prices continuing to be below the previous year’s levels, indicating that stronger government stimulus has yet to stimulate demand meaningfully.
This week promises a mix of key data, with inflation reports from several major economies, as well as trade and labor market insights from the US.
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