Week ahead - Non Farm Payrolls and Reserve Bank of Australia on focus

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The start of the new week will be marked by extremely low volatility due to the celebration of the Catholic Great Day in much of the developed countries of Europe and Asia. Of course, this will not prevent market sentiment from changing very quickly and at the end of the week to observe a high volatility generated by new jobs in the United States. Yes ... USD will again be the focus of traders and investors. Next week, the most significant event for the trader community will be data on new jobs, unemployment rates, and average hourly wages in the United States. You probably wonder what are the expectations among Wall Street investors - this time down. Let's look first at ADP on Wednesday. ADP's NFP expectations are 205K compared to 235K in February. The consensus forecast for the official data we expect on Friday is even worse, 198K versus 313K in February. It looks like the dollar will be under pressure, and the indexes will look for direction. We will probably not see a significant rise in USD, and many market participants will be disappointed again.

Next week, we'll also find out about RBA's decision on Australia's interest rates. Expectations are that interest rates remain unchanged at 1.50%. The report, following the Reserve Bank Of Australia decision, will most likely confirm its position on interest rate policy, and this will lead to a short-term decline in the Australian. The short-term Short Trend against USD will remain in effect, with each adjustment being used to add to the short positions. AUD and NZD will literally continue to be driven solely by Trump's decisions and his tweets. Any decision or statement by the president against China turns out to be detrimental to both currencies because of the close economic links between Australia and New Zealand with China. What pulls investors out of the Sell button is the commitment to communicate between the White House and China. Last week, we witnessed a major move from North Korea - Kim Chen Un visited China and reaffirmed his intentions for a dialogue with the US peninsula on the peninsula and denuclearisis. This, along with the stabilization of the indices, led to a withdrawal from the JPY. If we look at the big picture (W1) at USD / JPY, we will see that the price is at the key level of diagonal and horizontal resistance + swinging bar on a weekly basis - a high probability of USD growth and a JPY decrease next week.

Next week, we will get a detailed view of retail sales in Europe and the United States, and the data will be indicative of consumer sentiment in the largest economies. Here are the details:

The economic news that will move the markets next week


Holiday in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and UK

02:50 Japan - Tankan industrial production

04:45 China - Caixin Industrial Production

16:45 USA - Manufacturing PMI

17:00 USA - ISM Production PMI



01:00 New Zealand - Business Confidence

01:30 Australia - Production Index

07:30 Australia -  RBA interest Rate

07:30 Australia - RBA report on the key interest rate decision

09:00 Germany - Retail Sales

10:15 Switzerland - Retail Sales

10:55 Germany - Production PMI

11:00 Eurozone - Production PMI

11:30 UK - Production PMI

23:30 US - API Crude Oil Inventories



04:30 Australia - Building permits

04:30 Australia - Retail Sales

04:45 China - Caixin PMI in Services

11:30 UK - Construction PMI

12:00 Eurozone - CPI

12:00 Eurozone - Unemployment rate

15:15 USA - ADP Non Farm Payrolls

17:00 USA - Durable goods

17:30 US - Crude Oil Inventories



Holiday day in China and Hong Kong

03:30 Australia - Trade Balance

09:00 Germany - Machine orders

10:15 Switzerland - CPI

11:00 Eurozone - Services PMI

12:00 Eurozone - CPI

12:30 UK - Services PMI

15:30 US - Trade Balance

15:30 USA - Jobless claims

15:30 Canada - Trade Balance



Holiday day in China

02:30 Japan - Consumer spending

09:00 Germany - Industrial production

15:30 USA - Non Farm Payrolls

15:30 USA - Average hourly wage

15:30 USA - Unemployment rate

15:30 Canada - Unemployment Rate

20:00 USA - Baker Hughes oil rig count

 Trader Petar Milanov

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