There are essentially two separate stories at the moment. The first is opposition parties in the United Kingdom, who unite in an effort to stop Boris Johnson from reaching a deal without a deal.
The second is Boris Johnson, who wants to convince European leaders of a new deal with alternative backstop deals – a turning point in the whole Brexit trial over the last twelve months.
The first is also tied to the second, in the sense that opposition parties in the United Kingdom are not confident that a new deal is coming, and with Johnson’s hard line leaving by October 31, they fear he will be ready to catapult the European Union without deal.
Despite all the headlines yesterday, the most important in my opinion is Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney. All you have to do is remind yourself that the European Union is functioning so that you just have to find one member to veto the deal and everything falls apart.
In this case, Ireland is not inferior and the European Union – according to its past formality – will abide by this decision and join Ireland to present a united front.
As such, I just don’t see a way forward between the two sides until one of them is inclined to move its red lines. In this case, Boris Johnson plays full court press and wants the Irish camp to target theirs. This is a truly impossible undertaking, very unbelievable.
Of course, there may still be much more optimistic headlines for a “rhetorical change” in the position of the European Union and ongoing talks about an alternative to backstage. However, without specific suggestions, I just don’t see the optimism lasting as we move forward over the next few weeks.
Opposition parties in the United Kingdom may have difficulty assembling a majority to stop BoJo, but I believe there is still a strong likelihood of a Brexit delay followed by a general election. Otherwise, no-deal remains.
Trader Aleksandar Kumanov