What we expect from Nvidia’s report today.

Nvidia Corp. is set to report its latest quarterly results and guidance on Wednesday after the U.S. session closes, looking to see whether the world’s most valuable company can continue its remarkable rise, fueled by spending on artificial intelligence hardware. Wall Street analysts’ estimates for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue are wide of the mark — roughly $8 billion. That reflects uncertainty about whether Nvidia can ramp up shipments of its latest chips to meet what they describe as “crazy” demand. The new products, known as Blackwell, are facing manufacturing issues that are delaying their launch.

Third Quarter

• Estimated Revenue: $33.25 billion (Bloomberg consensus)
• Data Center Revenue: $29.14 billion
• Gaming Revenue: $3.06 billion
• Professional Visualization Revenue: $477.7 million
• Automotive Revenue: $364.4 million
• Adjusted Gross Margin: 75%
• R&D Expenses: $3.34 billion
• Adjusted Operating Expenses: $2.99 ​​billion
• Adjusted Operating Profit: $21.9 billion
• Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): 74 cents

Fourth Quarter

• Forecast Revenue: $37.1 billion
• Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: 73.5%
• Adjusted Operating Expenses: $3.21 billion

2025

• Estimated revenue: $126.58 billion

Nvidia’s earnings results this week are more important to the stock market than the Federal Reserve or even employment data, according to market options. The artificial intelligence chipmaker will return to the spotlight on Wall Street after a prolonged focus on the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. But Jensen Huang’s company remains extremely important to the market, according to Wall Street analysts who follow the options market.

“While election fallout, interest rate volatility and the Federal Reserve dominate the conversation, options suggest that NVDA’s results are still highly relevant to the market,” Gonzalo Assis, a capital markets analyst at Bank of America Securities, wrote on Sunday. Assis notes that the expected future movements of the S&P 500 are tied to the expected movements of Nvidia, suggesting there is more risk associated with the AI ​​chipmaker than with employment data, the consumer price index or even Federal Reserve meetings.

“Options suggest that Nvidia’s results will be the most important catalyst for the rest of the year, more significant than even NFP, CPI and FOMC,” Stefano Pascale, equity derivatives strategist at Barclays, wrote on Tuesday.

According to Barclays, the options market is predicting an implied move of 8% for Nvidia. That’s lower than the two-year average of 9.3%, but higher than the 6.4% move after the previous quarter’s financial results.

For investors, how Nvidia performs could determine what comes next for the market, which has recently seen a decline after a post-election rally, notes Assis of Bank of America Securities. The three major indexes are more than 2% below their recent highs, reached immediately after the election.

Asis recommends hedging against earnings results in case Nvidia misses expectations.

Nvidia has contributed roughly a fifth of the S&P 500’s return over the past 12 months and is expected to provide nearly 25% of the index’s third-quarter earnings growth, according to Bank of America. The semiconductor company has a market capitalization of nearly $3.5 trillion, comparable to Apple’s but ahead of Microsoft, having surged 196% so far in 2024.