Why and Until When is Bitcoin Bearish

➡⬆ Consolidation of an Uptrend
➡ DeMarker remains in neutral territory after failed attempt to enter overbought
⬇ Sequential forms a 9, signaling an upcoming correction
⬇ Megaphone forms a 7, also indicating exhaustion of upward momentum
⬇ Marubozu bearish price action
⬇ Break below horizontal support

In conclusion:

I expect the price to head towards the zone around $100,000 – $98,000, where support levels are clustered. A break below this level would deepen the corrective impulse, and the price will likely head towards the 23.6% FIBO level around $95,000.

Alternatively:

If the price breaks and returns above the horizontal resistance around $102,500, it will likely head for a new test of ATH levels around $108,000.

Fundamental:

The cryptocurrency market took a hit today, with the total market capitalization down by about 3%, dropping to around $3.54 trillion as of January 23. Most major cryptocurrencies are down, each showing a decline over the past 24 hours. The crypto community had been optimistic that the return of President Trump to the White House would bring with it a set of economic policies favorable to the crypto market. Trump had promised to turn the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the world,” and there was anticipation that on his first day in office, he would issue multiple executive orders in this direction, potentially including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

As of the time of publication, President Trump has not yet issued specific executive orders directly related to cryptocurrency policies. However, there are indications that he plans to introduce several crypto-friendly measures, including the creation of a crypto advisory board and the repeal of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Accounting Guidance (SAB 121). The new crypto working group for developing a digital assets framework, established by the SEC on January 21, is seen as a step toward fulfilling his campaign promises. Despite this, his proposed policy to remove capital gains taxes from U.S.-born cryptocurrencies has raised concerns, with some arguing that it could potentially benefit a select group of assets, leading to market consolidation around a few assets while leaving others vulnerable to depreciation.