Crude oil is already down $ 1 a day with a new low at $ 62.08. The price does not find the expected demand because we do not yet have a serious escalation of the situation between Iran and the USA.
The latest sharp price hike starts to look like this after the Saudi Aramco attack in September. It was followed by a complete slowdown in growth since the event did not lead to a military conflict.
In addition, there is a report of an extremely dense fog over the shipping channel in Houston, which may delay US oil exports this week and lead to inventory rises. Today at 23:30 we will see the API data for oil stocks.
Looking ahead, I expect sales at WTI and BRENT to continue, respectively, until a strong and clear fundamental catalyst emerges that will shoot the price up and start another rally. Possible fundamental factors that could have such a positive effect are the intensification of global oil demand and the decline in shale gas production in the US – something analysts expect to happen in H2 this year.
Trader Milko Zashev