Wyckoff Model Signals False Breakout in Bitcoin and New Test of $100K

Bitcoin Drops 21.40% in a Month After Reaching Record High of $109,300

Despite the decline, some analysts remain optimistic and expect the bullish trend to continue in 2025.

Wyckoff Model Suggests a Retest of $100,000

The Wyckoff reaccumulation model is a technical formation consisting of consolidation and accumulation following a strong upward trend. This model typically goes through nine key phases:

• Preliminary Supply (PSY)
• Buying Climax (BC)
• Automatic Reaction (AR)
• Secondary Test (ST)
• Spring
• Test
• Last Point of Support (LPS)
• Final phase – Sign of Strength (SOS)

According to independent market analyst SuperBro, as of February 26, Bitcoin has entered the “Test” phase of the Wyckoff model. In this phase, Bitcoin is testing the low from the “Spring” phase around $85,950 as a support level, aiming to confirm a bullish scenario toward the new Last Point of Support (LPS) around $96,780.

What’s Next?

The Wyckoff framework predicts that a new upward cycle will begin when Bitcoin enters the final phase – Sign of Strength (SOS). This requires a successful retest of the model’s peak around $106,700, including a decisive breakout above the $100,000 threshold.

A similar pattern in August 2024 led to a price surge from $53,400 (Spring support) to $74,000 (LPS). Analyst Vijay Boyapati recalls the same period in 2024 when Bitcoin consolidated in the $50,000–$70,000 range for eight months before breaking out in November after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. He expects Bitcoin to undergo another prolonged consolidation phase before surging decisively, emphasizing that “the top has not yet been reached.”

Has Bitcoin Reached the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s weekly charts indicate potential further declines in the coming weeks. Previous corrections from local highs have led the price to the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (red line). Currently, this EMA is around $76,390, about 15% lower than current levels.

Interestingly, the $76,390 level coincides with the main trendline that has supported Bitcoin’s price since November 2022. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.65 suggests there is still room for further downside. A decisive close below this support could accelerate sell-offs toward the next downside targets – around $57,690 and $48,170 (the latter coinciding with the 200-week EMA).

Alternative Scenario

A rebound from the temporary support zone between $85,000 and $90,000, or from the stronger zone around $76,390, could open the way for an upward move toward $100,000, in line with the Wyckoff LPS target.