What’s Moving the Markets Today?

Futures on major U.S. indices are rising slightly as early-week sentiment gradually eases. Bitcoin has climbed back above $90,000, while the sell-off in government bonds is beginning to stabilize. Marvell shares jump in after-hours trading after the company announces a multi-billion-dollar acquisition of the startup Celestial AI and reports stronger-than-expected guidance. Markets will be watching private-sector employment data, while oil prices rise amid talks of a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

1. Futures are rising
   U.S. stock futures are back in the green on Wednesday as the earlier-week declines in cryptocurrencies and bonds begin to stabilize.

As of 07:27 Bulgarian time, Dow Jones futures are up about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures have risen 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are also up 0.2%.

Major Wall Street indices closed the previous session higher, largely ignoring some of the cautious sentiment seen earlier in the week.

Investors are again focused on expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point reduction at the December 9–10 meeting remains around 87%, according to CME FedWatch data. This shows that market participants broadly expect the Fed to feel confident supporting a cooling labor market despite ongoing inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has announced that he will nominate his choice for the next Fed Chair in early 2026 and has already narrowed the list to one candidate. Market expectations point to White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who, as a close ally of Trump, is likely to support a more accommodative monetary policy.

2. Bitcoin and bond stabilization
   Bitcoin has returned above $90,000 following the sharp correction earlier in the week. As of 09:58 Bulgarian time, the cryptocurrency is up nearly 7% to around $93,000, approaching a two-week high, though still well below the all-time peak from a month and a half ago.

Recent risk-off sentiment came from expectations of a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which triggered a global bond sell-off affecting cryptocurrencies and equities.

The Bitcoin decline hit companies holding large amounts of the token the hardest. Most notably, it impacted Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which owns about 650,000 Bitcoin, or 3.1% of the future 21 million total supply. The company lowered its annual earnings guidance due to the drop. Its shares fell on Monday but partially recovered the following day, trading slightly higher in after-hours.

3. Marvell’s Celestial AI deal
   Marvell Technology confirmed a multi-billion-dollar acquisition of the startup Celestial AI, aiming to expand computing capacity amid the ongoing AI boom.

The $3.25 billion deal gives Marvell access to Celestial’s photonics technology, which uses light instead of electrical signals to connect AI chips with memory. Marvell competes with Broadcom and Nvidia in the race to develop specialized AI chips. CEO Matt Murphy stated that cloud companies will begin adopting photonics by 2027.

The company expects meaningful revenue from the acquisition to materialize in the second half of fiscal 2028. Murphy added that Marvell forecasts around $10 billion in revenue next year, with a 25% growth from data center revenue as the main driver. For custom chips, the company expects 20% growth.

Marvell shares, pressured by strong competition and concerns about a potential AI bubble, jumped over 8% in after-hours trading.

4. ADP employment data
   Market participants are watching today’s ADP report on new private-sector jobs for November. Expectations are for roughly 5,000 new jobs, significantly below the 42,000 reported in October.

The labor market remains a key factor for expected interest rate trajectories. After an almost certain rate cut in December, future policy paths are clouded further due to the lack of new official data following the recent partial government shutdown.

Nonfarm payroll data for October were canceled and will merge with November’s figures, meaning the official October unemployment report will never be published. Therefore, the ADP report has become a key benchmark for market participants.

5. Oil continues to rise slightly
   Oil prices are climbing, as an immediate peace deal between Russia and Ukraine still seems unlikely, maintaining supply-side risks.

Brent futures rise 0.6% to $62.80 per barrel, while U.S. WTI gains 0.7% to $59.06 per barrel.

Russia and the U.S. made no progress in peace talks following a long meeting between Vladimir Putin and envoys Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner. Markets are awaiting whether a future agreement might lift sanctions on Russian companies and release additional oil supplies.

Meanwhile, rising U.S. crude inventories add concerns about a potential surplus, after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.48 million-barrel increase for the week ending November 28.